First, I want to define two terms you might see below: “Market” refers to the average of the three projections.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays underachieved by eight wins in 2021 , and all projections like them to split the difference this season.
Toronto’s divisional odds should be closer to +125, and its World Series odds nearer to +800, than north of +200 and +1200, respectively.
Still, I don’t see actionable value on any of the Rays’ wagering options, despite a lean to the Over at 89.5.
Baltimore Orioles: Zero incentive to compete in the toughest division in baseball.
I have the lowest projection for Minnesota by about two games, but I’m happy to side with the market and take an Over 78.5 .
Cleveland Guardians: Might be looking to sell, but the last time this organization paced for fewer than 80 wins was in 2012.
As you can see above, I upgraded the Tigers by +10.7 of wins this offseason.
Still, they have a volatile, high-upside roster, and their divisional odds could be anywhere from +200 to +550, depending on the projection.
You can also take a shot at their World Series odds if you want to get wild.
The market is typically low on Oakland — and that’s the case again this season.
Miami Marlins: I am high on the Marlins moving forward — with a plethora of young, controllable starting pitching at their disposal.
Still, I was able to find a juiced Under 87.5 at BetRivers, which seemed too good to pass up.
Cincinnati Reds: My projection likes the Under 75.5, and it may be wise to get ahead of a team that looks like it will sell.
Chicago Cubs: If I had to pick one team to defy all projections this year and break .500, the Cubs are the squad; they’re doing some exciting things which may not translate well to predictive data.
ZIPS only makes them -257 to win the West, while PECOTA has them at -546.
Still, you’re likely to get closer to +2500 or +300 if you wait, and they stay around .500 for six to eight weeks without Fernando Tatis Jr.
